Thursday, October 30, 2008

Official TalkCast Thread

Going to open up this thread for comments on and during the TalkCast.

Feel free to have your say here.

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Final TalkCast! Tomorrow! (Thursday)

Our friend BTC informs us that due to popular demand he has decided to host a final 'cast of the Casey saga before the dim-witted flipper flips the switch and disappears into the ether again.

Thursday, October 30, 6pm Pacific time (9pm Eastern)

http://www.talkshoe.com/tc/30589

It is neither a Haterz or a Supporterz 'cast. It is open to anybody who wants to say hello, goodbye or make a few comments. BTC is going to keep things short, reasonably friendly and not let anybody drone on. Comments will be open and he says he'll go as long as people want to.

As always, we will be listening anonymously, but will reserve our comments to this space. An open comments thread will be made available shortly before the talkcast starts.

TrueCasey Pulls the Plug

Well, It seems that TrueCasey is pulling the plug. We believe it's the bottom of his latest manic/depressive cycle and he'll eventually reconsider, but financially it'll be tough for him, as we know this will mean moving home, and it's been pretty reliably stated that he won't have any internet or blogging access if that happens. He will probably need to get some sort of a real job, whatever he can qualify for.

He also will probably have to deal with whatever food mommy can put on the table. There is likely to be a major belt-tightening in the Serin household and visits to Whole Paycheck just aren't going to be part of the deal.

In fact, there could be a perfect storm of disaster for the Serin household. His mom works for the local school district at a time when major education cutbacks are a virtual certainty. Nigel has reported that TrueCasey's dad also works for the state, in some kind of engineering capacity. While school districts and the state tend not to lay people off completely during crisis, they often cut back hours and pay less at least temporarily.

Add to the possibility of diminished household earnings the additional burden of TrueCasey and his $65,000 in debt. We note that in this regard, TrueCasey is lucky that his debt is on business cards. Personal cards must charge a minimum of 4% of the balance, which would be about $2,600 per month! Only his brother's car-rehabbing business is not dependent on the state budget, but could be impacted by recession as well. (Possibly to the better though, smart used-car guys can do well when times are bad!) And of course, it's unlikely that his parents would be able to refinance their house at this point to pay off the high-interest debt. Even if there is equity in the house, there's unlikely to be enough, and financing is rough. Maybe next year.

Things for TrueCasey certainly look bad right now. He has been warned many times over the years, and has continued to believe that the OPM is endless. Now he has hit the logical conclusion that one arrives at when starting from that premise. Inevitably, he has retreated into religion, conspiracy theories and all sorts of other odd beliefs to convince himself that:

1. It doesn't matter
2. It wasn't his fault
3. It'll still be allgood

It's a sad but predictable end. We cannot be joyful, but we can be satisfied that it's likely over and from this maybe a better Casey will emerge. Maybe his family will toss aside their religious convictions and Soviet-era distrust of mental health professionals and get him the help he needs. Maybe somebody else will. We wish him well, but doubt the next few years will be fun for him.

As an aside: We note that TrueCasey states he's given up on finishing the book.

Sort of odd, considering that CHJTS stated just a few days ago that "I have read Casey's e-book and I will tell you it is a nearly complete guide of foreclosure, exit strategies, and common sense advice on what to do. Yes it is rough around the edges (lots of edges), but with some massaging, proof reading, and editing, it will be a hit and will be an extremely resourceful guide to anyone and everyone needing assistance with foreclosure problems."

Sounds like he was reading something that the author states was never written. Nice going CHJTS!

And that's the way it is from FalseCasey HQ, where we believe that despite today's bummer of a closing hour, a temporary bottom has been put in and there's a month or two of gains to come for those who can position themselves carefully.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

TrueCasey is Succeeding! (At becoming irrelevant)

We note that TrueCasey may be achieving his first and possibly only success.

He is successfully getting rid of the haterz™. Of course, the cost is that he is getting rid of pretty much any audience he ever had or ever will have.

100% Success!!!

Sadly for TrueCasey, and happily for the rest of us, there is only a small audience for the type of bizarre content he is passing on. And since he is not creating anything new, just passing along stuff that is available for free elsewhere, he won't generate any money by doing it.

Soon enough, he'll be forced to return home. Forget the dumb ideas about living in vans, being a "perpetual traveler" or any other such crap. Those solutions require a lot of smarts (if only streetsmarts) which TrueCasey lacks. And his stated inability to deal with any lack of normal creature comforts clearly disqualifies him from living this life, no matter how much he might talk of it.

His choice will be to go home and live with his parents' rules. No semi-vegan living at somebody else's expense. No more of mom doing his chores for him, or paying his sister to clean his toilet.

TrueCasey will fade away. Made irrelevant by his own failure to work at being relevant and his more and more desperate efforts to find something "special" for him to do that will allow him to somehow be different, unique, better or more successful than others, with little to no effort required.

Like many such scoundrels, he has no retreated into convincing himself that it doesn't matter. The world will soon end and his God will save him. Like the hero of The Tartar Steppe (which we refered to a few days ago), TrueCasey will probably spend much of his life waiting for the event that could prove his worth, but will probably never happen.

In the meantime, unless he decides to live in society as a productive member of society, his only value will be as a source of entertainment for some and a warning to others.

And that's the view from FalseCasey HQ, where tomorrow's stock market isn't looking much better, but the hope for a turnaround Tuesday is always there.

Monday, October 27, 2008

TrueCasey has Become Boring

Apparently he's recorded about half a dozen podcasts, most of which are actually rebroadcasts of somebody else's podcasts, which he probably appropriated without permission, but it's OK because he's part of their cause, etc...

Most of it is more of the conspiracy "troother" crap that he's been pushing lately. Having failed to monetize his lack of real-estate experience with an online community, he's now planning to monetize his lack of any kind of survival experience into a survivalist community. Unfortunately, as his own actions suggest, there's plenty of this out there already and plenty of guys with knowledge doing survival stuff. Everything from "AR15.com" to "Armchair Survivalist" already exists for the individuals who care to indulge in this. How a guy who can't survive without organic produce from Whole Paycheck is going to provide anything of use to anybody is beyond our comprehension, but that much is true for just about everything TrueCasey has ever done.

We think TrueCasey is getting close to the end. His shiny penny stock has moved up closer to two cents than one cent where it was a week ago, but he's still hopelessly screwed on this one after the taxes come due. He has made no progress on any sort of product that can be sold or offered to anybody who will pay for it. He most certainly doesn't have other income streams because people don't hire people who live in motels and blog about their colons. He'll have no choice but to move home, and has made it clear that "home" now equals "get a job and contribute your fair share, and by the way, eat our food or figure out how to pay for your own..."

Ultimately, we believe that TrueCasey really believes he is interesting and has something interesting to say. He has often commented on his "need to tell his story," but fails to recognize that anything interesting about his story ended over a year ago. The only thing that keeps him in the spotlight is his willingness to be a clown and to be hated. Take away the hate, as he has, and replace an open forum with a moderated and podcasted one, and there's no longer anybody interested. We certainly can't be bothered to listen to his inane ramblings.

And that's the way it is at FalseCasey World Headquarters where we're getting a slow start to the week, but at least we're awake which is more than we can say for TrueCasey.

Friday, October 24, 2008

TrueCasey "Sink or Swim" Coming to Close

Our friend WeWantTheFunk has again written a beautiful analysis of the TrueCasey situation. We are reliably informed that he has given us permission to reproduce it here.

Let's evaluate the highlights in Casey's progress towards his 30-day goal, shall we?

Oct 4: Sink-Or-Swim declared.

Casey has $1000 in credit left, $300 in PayPal, $100 cash, and owes $65,000 on his cards.
Originally Posted By: FlippyHowever, my best shot right now is to parlay my foreclosure experience from the last 2 years into a profitable Foreclosure Help business through selling ebooks/info-products, referring services, etc. It fits into my goal of building passive income and I’m passionate about helping people.
30 days? Letsdoit! Itsallgood!

Oct 6: 7ForeclosureMistakes ebook ready for download.

Casey eventually gives up and just lets anyone download it for free. It's basically a laughable POS that's two years out of date and terribly written besides. He wants everyone else to proof and edit it for him for free.

Oct 7: Casey gets serious about earning money by putting up his Truth page.

Later changed to "Conspiracy," then "Conspiracy" with "and truth" cleverly concealed in the background. Black helicopters fail to swirl around and drop money on his motel room, but someone has to be a non-brainwashed news source, and it may as well be Casey. Responsibility lies heavy upon his shoulders.

Oct 8: Casey tweaks the sidebar, blogs about it.

Somehow, it generates no passive income. Casey is baffled.

Oct 10: Fraudcast! Barbeque!

Casey and Christsdummy do a talkcast on the eve of the Goldspring barbeque. Eager supporters fail to rush to the coffeehouse to press money into his hands.

The next day, Casey ambles off to Virginia City to avoid eating at a barbeque hosted by Goldspring. Transportation and lodging fail to be eclipsed by the income generated. GSPG continues to tank in the following weeks, despite having painted most of their equipment purple.

Oct 14: Ebook Rought Draft Placeholder Preorder goes on sale!

The end result of months of work and a $65,000 investment of OPM is quickly leaked, and Haterz™ laugh themselves paralytic. $50 buys you a 19-page pamphlet that lacks a single word about avoiding foreclosure. It could easily be condensed to six pages. Most of it a sales pitch trying to convince the gullible to support his future endeavours. Casey is very proud of the cover, but apparently has never heard of a Photoshop layer mask, as the seascape just fades into the house and makes the whole thing look stupid. Casey claims to sell one at $50; at that rate, it will take him only two months to pay for one month at his present burn rate. No further sales materialize, and Casey later publicly doubts that he will work on it any more. 0% success for Casey.

He also feels overwhelmed. In other news, life is hard.

Oct 16: Talkcast the second

Surprisingly, the next talkcast still fails to make him any money. He defends his ebook, and claims (in a conversation with me) that he doesn't care if it gets leaked because people who want to support him will still buy it. No one stands up.

Comments on TC are disabled, and he blogs into a howling vacuum.

Oct 20-21: Truther and other drivel

Truthiness as an income generation tool has yet to prove itself, as Casey pontificates about Obama, survivalism, and blogging; strangely enough, no one pays him to do it.

Comments are turned back on, but only happy, positive, supportive things that tell him how brilliant he is will be allowed. Comments stating otherwise are deleted, unless they are couched in acrostics.

Oct 24: Hallelujah!

Casey seeks income at a 3-day church conference. Though he witnesses other miracles, God fails to provide. Perhaps his faith is not strong enough. He claims that the $89 fee was paid months ago, and his only costs have been food. He will return to Sacramento on Saturday, the 25th, leaving him approximately ten days to get his Foreclosure Help business to generate sufficient passive income to pay for another month in the motel plus gas and living expenses. He had better find some more church conferences to attend, more truthiness to blog about, and hold more talkcasts if he expects to do all that and pay off his credit cards Anytime Soon™.

Score as of Oct 24: Ebooks sold: 1 Info products sold: 0 Referrals to services: 0 Passive income: 0 People helped: 0

Sweet!

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

TrueCasey is a Loon

If you haven't been over to TrueCasey's blog, don't bother.

He's spent his last two posts passing on information about the coming new world order, "fake" money, 911 conspiracies, etc. Much of the material he passes on for "education" is racist, anti-semetic and arguably un-American. We choose not to partake.

Now, we will be the first to note that the current international monetary and fiscal systems are hardly sound, and a return to sanity will be painful. But TrueCasey has jumped off into the deep end.

However, we note that this is consistent with TrueCasey's behavior. We have noted in the past that he has always looked for a way to rationalize his behavior, and even more so, has looked for reasons why his dumb behavior is actually "right" and will be redeemed in the end. He continues that now, going to even more ridiculous extremes. His new gurus are the survivalists and troothers. His new rationale for running up debt and failing to acquire a life is that it doesn't matter, the system is going to collapse and it'll all be worthless. Naturally, he never stops to think that even if bad things come to pass, having worked for a while will allow him to stockpile food or whatever, or buy gold coins, or do whatever else he needs to do to be prepared.

We suggest that TrueCasey read a book called The Tartar Steppe, which is also addressed in Taleb's masterpiece The Black Swan. Without giving it all away, it centers on the life of a young military commander, sent to a remote outpost to prepare for the invasion of the Tartars. He wastes his entire life there, waiting for an invasion that only comes when he is on his deathbed and unable to share in the glory.

We think TrueCasey could learn from this. His newfound gurus have been shouting similar slogans for a hundred years. They have been shouting about the invalidity of the currency since FDR, and arguing about it longer than that. They said similar things about JFK as they are now saying about Obama.

Someday, in some ways, they will probably be right. All monetary regimes eventually collapse, and the dollar will too. But anybody who is betting that they know when it will happen is seriously deluding themselves. It makes for nice idle discussion, and certainly is always the kind of thing that's worth bearing in mind, but if you live your life waiting for it, the odds are good that you'll end up like young Giovanni Drogo in The Tartar Steppe -- wasting your life waiting for an event that will most likely never come.

Or, as our dear friend Tony Dwyer of FTN Midwest Securities once famously noted "The sun is certain to go dark someday, but it makes for a pretty bad trade."

But TrueCasey cannot understand this. He has eschewed education, analayis and understanding in favor of quick answers and rationalization of the things he's already done, always easily available from videos and blogs on the internet.

Which is why he fails.

And that's the view from a temporary FalseCasey HQ away from home, where we have a fantastic view of the City and the bay.

Feel free to discuss

Monday, October 20, 2008

Casey doesn't want the hate

TrueCasey doesn't want any hate anymore

About Casey Serin & Don’t Hate… Support and Appreciate! - 20Oct08

After a little break I wrote two new pages:

About Casey Serin

and

Don’t Hate… Support and Appreciate!

Comments enabled. Login not required but encouraged. Moderation is on.

Unless it’s “loving, supportive or constructive”, I don’t want to hear it!!

We’ll see how it goes.

An experiment.

Thank you.


We think the experiment will fail, of course, just like everything else the little twit has ever done. If you read through the comments you'll find him even more detached from reality than usual: he doesn't need to pay back his debt because it wasn't "real money;" He doesn't want deadlines, the book will be done when it's done, this despite his various "30-day challenges" and other self-imposed deadlines, not to mention the fact that he's running out of cash corporate credit; we need to get ready to live off the land, etc.

Anyway, he's still an idiot, and we aren't even going to bother posting over there, except maybe the occasional (certain to be moderated) mention of his sweetie Tanja.

Except that maybe posting is worth it. He's going to do at least some of the modding himself, meaning that even if the hate doesn't become public, at least he'll get to read it.

Whatever. Fuck him.

And that's the way it is at FalseCasey HQ, where we're caught a bit behind on the TrueCasey saga due to work stuff that's come up, and are now watching stupid criminals on TruTV. Someday we'll watch Casey on that show...

As always, open comments.

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Open thread for comments

Not a whole lot new today. TrueCasey has decided to take revenge on the haterz and shut off comments.

And hits to his page have declined by about 99%, according to sitemeter.

Not much new to say. We'll eventually listen to his talkcast and say something, but in the meantime free free to comment on his latest announcement which basically says that he is looking for a haterz-free environment and shutting off all comments.

And feel free to consider:

Current Day TrueCasey stats - http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s50truecasey&r=1
Previous Seven Days TC stats - http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s50truecasey&r=6

Thursday, October 16, 2008

The E-Book, Reviewed

TrueCasey has again moved the goalposts.

A week ago he was planning to write a book with the "mission of helping people." Now he's a community-builder for cash.

All this comes out in his magnum opus. We have received a copy and it is pure drivel, as we had expected. We will not violate his copyright, but will review this piece of garbage, in a manner consistent with fair use law.

He starts out the book telling us of "The Secret Plan, Exposed. The secret plan is simple: "I want to build a community. A place where you, me and people who need help can connect confidentially and privately and provide support for each other...

"So I'm talking about a membership site!"


He goes on to babble on about how brilliant the idea was, then spends about eight pages detailing his history and the history of him coming up with this brilliant idea and who his target market is and how he really wants to help people.

He eventually provides us a link to his "story" in the form of the public archive of all the old IAFF posts, which he apparently does not realize is quite easy to find already from links in Caseypedia. He spends four pages reproducing his first post.

Then there's a page and a half explaining that this "book" is really just a rough draft, thanking people for supporting his cause, making excuses for the fact that after several months of purported "work" all he has produced is a link to his old blog, and promising that anybody who bought the thing will get free upgrades in the future, if and when they are ever produced.

Of course, the whole thing is in a large font with wide margins and lots of white space, which is the only way he could stretch it to 19 pages. It's also full of typical Casey misspellings and poor grammar, as if anybody expected otherwise.

That's it. 19 pages including the cover and a page of disclaimers. It's not even really a book, it's just an advertising pamphlet including a link to his archive, which is available free to anybody who wants to search for it. Actual useful content for somebody who is in foreclosure? Zero pages. For $49.95.

We think TrueCasey really has gone crazy. Other than that, we will withhold comment at this time because frankly we're not even sure where to start.

And that's the picture from FalseCasey HQ, where the DOW has re-re-re-reversed itself and is now up 236.

TrueCasey's ebook is published

Yawn.

We admit it has been interesting to watch TrueCasey's antics in recent weeks, as he flailed his way from Salt Lake City back to his home, then into a cheap motel room where -- god forbid! -- he does not have the maid service that he is accustomed to.

And he has now reportedly published a "draft" copy of his e-book, which he expects his supporters to pay almost $50 to own. He justifies this by saying that they will not just be purchasing an unfocused and unfinished book but also supporting his unfocused and unfinished "vision," whatever that may be.

Today he also says that his next step is to rid himself of haterz™ and he is wondering how to accomplish that.

We have a recommendation to him. It is the same recommendation we make when we are confronted with a CEO who blames all his company's problems on "the short sellers" and wonders how to get rid of them. We always tell them to stop wasting time bashing the shorts and instead focus on running the business. Running the business well, of course, will tend to push the stock price up and nothing makes the shorts cover faster than a company that is executing well and delivering positive price moves.

So our recommendation to TrueCasey is simple: Start executing. When you say, "I'm going to have an e-book out there by midnight," deliver an actual e-book. Not a half-assed "rough draft" that you put out there only to satisfy your own need to "check off" the item as done, delcare success and move on. The world does not accept half-assed efforts or "check mark" success. Deliver! If you deliver, the haterz™ will go away. Some of them may even turn to suporterz™.

If you continue to fail, people will continue to criticize.

The choice is yours.

And that's the view from FalseCasey Headquarters where the DOW has managed to pull off a reversal of more than 300 points right now.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Tanja?

Last week we were indisposed and unavailable to comment, but we noticed something interesting.

An individual calling herself (or himself) "Tanja" posted twice on the TrueCasey blog.

The first post was made by "Casey's Special Friend" and read:

KC, I cant believe you are wasting your time with all this dermo when u need 2 be spending your time making $$$.

No more wonderful nights 4 u.

- Tanja
Our ex-Soviet associate informs us that "dermo" is a poor transliteration of the Russian word for "shit." Tanja, of course, is a Russian name.

The second post was later in the day and was rapidly deleted. However, one of our sources at CaseyHaterz™ has provided us with a screen shot that circulated amongst some haterz™ during the next day:



Again, the word "dermo" is used. This time the poster refers to herself as "Tanja KC's Sweet Shlyooha." The final word, we are told, being the Russian for "slut" or "whore."

We obviously have no idea if this person is really affiliated with TrueCasey. We certainly doubt that it is actually TrueCasey's "special friend." The use of the word "idito" (misspelling of "idiot," borrowed from TrueCasey and common amongst haterz™ these days), suggests a haterz™ affiliation. We do not know if "Tanja" is a real name or if this is a real photo. But the fact that the post was deleted so quickly suggests that somebody came close to the mark, if only by bringing up TrueCasey's relationships at all.

And that's the view from FalseCasey Headquarters where the market is having one of its best days ever and we are selling.